JR's Football Picks: Thanksgiving's Week 12
Wednesday, November 25, 2009 at 08:01PM 
An idyllic picture of the conquering white folks breaking bread with some natives before giving them smallpox-infested blankets to keep warm.Throughout 2009, I'm sure that all of us have enjoyed the ups and downs of life. Things like The Economy, Ed Hardy gear, on the same wavelength were Jon and Kate Gosselin and their terrible soap opera made us cringe. However, other items such as Barack Obama taking office, Grizzly Bear releasing "Veckatimest" and the premiere of "The League" on FX made the year pretty tolerable. Now, without giving my readers a terribly ham-handed list of "Things I'm Grateful For" or gush about the "Football Season to Be Grateful For" we'll just go right into the picks this week. It's a short week -- I feel like I just wrote a column 4 days ago and that's because I basically did.
At any rate, Happy Thanksgiving to you football fans. Enjoy some Q.T. with family and friends today, some good bird and fixin's and of course, the three football games being played.
Thanksgiving Picks for you:
Week 12 picks (picks in BOLD; * denotes spread picks)
Green Bay* @ Detroit (+11.5)
A physical freak.
With the news that Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford are both likely to miss the early Thanksgiving game with injuries (Calvin - a bum knee and wrist; Matthew - a separated shoulder), this one might turn into a bloodbath early. UPDATE: These dudes are starting! Detroit is going to have to throw in this one, and throw often. The Green Bay defense has been playing very, very tough and even though they're now battling injuries of their own, I think they have enough fire power to overcome the newly high-octane, hanging 35 points on a team in a WIN Detroit Lions. Aaron Rodgers will be great. Ryan Grant should also make his fantasy owners (and Packers fans) happy. And the whole cadre of receiving weapons will combine for a ton of yards and maybe 3-4 TDs. Green Bay wins big on the road to stay in contention for the Wild Card.
At Dallas vs. Oakland* (+13.5)
I hate that Dallas is in first place in the NFC East. I hate that they beat the Redskins by just one point, 7-6 in a boring-as-fuck baseball score of a game last week. I hate that they play every Thanksgiving. I hate that Tony Romo gets too much credit for the mediocre job he does week after week. I also hate the Oakland Raiders. I hate Bruce Gradkowski. I hate Tom Cable. I love Louis Murphy and Zach Miller, but I hate Oakland's fans. Enjoying this game will be like sitting through getting a tattoo of a perfectly shaded tornado storm on your scrotum. I'm picking the upset.
NY Giants @ Denver* (+6.5)
The Manning Boys, Thanksgiving 1993.
Short week for both of these teams, each of whom come off tough games in Week 11. Despite giving up a 14-point lead in theirs, the Giants managed to salvage their game with an overtime win against Atlanta while Denver got steamrolled by a surging and dangerous Chargers team. It's hard to like the Giants chances with only three days rest, playing without Ahmad Bradshaw and Antonio Pierce and playing in one of the toughest natural (mile-high city, intense altitude, extreme fatigue) and man-made (Invesco Field, great fans, always cold, possibly snowing) settings. I'm not sure the Broncos have the veteran leadership either from their coach, or their players, to bounce back this week after four straight losses. Too many injuries, some in-fighting, and a tough test with the Giants coming to town. I'll take the G-men, but not by 6.5. This is going to be a tough one.
Indianapolis* @ Houston (+3.5)
Alright, look. You're probably looking at this going, "Wow, Houston's only a three-and-a-half point underdog? Is Peyton Manning injured or something?" and you'd be right in thinking that. What the fuck does this team have to do to earn some respect? Sure, they're only 10-0 so far. And they only have the best quarterback in the league, maybe in the HISTORY of the league. Yes, the Texans are at home and usually home teams are favored, but they're 5-5. They're going to be completely out-coached in this one. From a talent perspective, they've got some nice pieces just as the Colts do. But Matt Schaub ain't Peyton Manning. I'd take The Horse if they were laying 6. Almost double what's up there now. Come on, line makers. Sure, they're the damn small market darlings, but let's get serious. They win when it counts. They win tight games. They're damn good.
At Cincinnati* vs. Cleveland (+14)
So Brady Quinn must've been tripping balls last weekend when he went out on the turf at Ford Field and looked like Joe Montana taking on Dan Marino (Matthew Stafford). The guy threw 4 TD passes in ONE GAME when their offense had scored 5 offensive touchdowns ALL SEASON. Well, I don't see that happening again. Cincy is going to be playing meeeeeeeeeeean after a tough, tough defeat at the hands of the lowly Raiders. Now that they're 1-9, and could possibly finish the season at 1-15 or 2-14, what happens to Mangini? Does Randy Lerner give him another season to cash in those eleven draft picks and see if he can create some talent there in Ohio? I wonder... Meanwhile, if they win the AFC North, Marvin Lewis has to be coach of the year. Going 6-0 in the division will certainly help that cause.
At Minnesota* vs. Chicago (+11)
Two teams going in totally different directions. The Bears came into the year as honest shots at the NFC North title having acuqired Jay Cutler from the Broncos and re-making the Bears (and in the process, the division) a QB's division instead of Defense, defense, defense. Then the Vikings one-upped them by bringing Favre back. No one could've guessed that 40-year old Favre would play like a Wrangler-clad robot who does not compute errors. No one saw the Packers O-line being held together by duct tape and bubble gum. But more importantly, not many could've guessed the Vikes would be THIS good. We knew they'd be good, but expectations were tempered. 10-6, maybe 11-5, sure. They've got tough match-ups all the way out (Bears, Cardinals, Bengals, Giants included) but you've gotta like what you've seen so far. I like them at home this weekend. Cutler's going to make some mistakes, and this team will capitalize. That's the difference.
At Philadelphia* vs. Washington (+9)
The original R.O.C.
Who? Charles S. Dutton? No, the starting running back for the Redskins this week on the road against the Eagles is who? Ohhhhh, Rock Cartwright. The best name in football next to this guy, but still, the third-most talented back on the lowly Redskins. He's not going to help them against Donovan, DeSean, LeSean, Brent Celek and the rest of the cadre of weapons waiting in the wings for Philly. Give me the Eagles, all day, please.
Miami* @ Buffalo (+3)
As long as Tricky Ricky doesn't get caught trying to score some quality bud in Canada on Saturday while he's out with his boys, this is Miami's game to lose. Nice to see Terrell Owens play like it was 2003 when Uggs were hot and Crocs were cool last week. Almost 200 yards and a score -- hot damn! I could see something similar happening again this week since the Miami Dolphins' run D is superb. Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to have to heave it up to move it, so look for Fast Freddy Jackson, Lee Evans and the aforementioned Owens to have solid games.
At Tennessee* vs. Arizona (+2.5)
I'm gonna go crazy here. Tennessee wins this game, moves to 5-6, starts creeping into the Wild Card discussion and deals Arizona a blow that potentially undoes their season. Chris Johnson might be the best running back in football. Vince Young has exhibited new maturity and ability, and could very well be dueling his boy, Captain Hollybeard, Matty Light Leinart. (That's a play on Natty Light, the college beer. I hear people use it when playing beer pong. Matt Leinart plays beer pong. Jesus, I suck.) So, with that said, and with the Titans quietly ranking in the top 10 in sacks, I think they'll give the 'Zonas some trouble, and could even pull out a shocker when the team comes east this week where they usually play poorly. Man, if THAT happens, could Jeff Fisher be considered for coach of the year? 5 straight wins, back in the playoff picture, responsible for exhuming Vince Young's ecstacy-ridden corpse? Maaaan. I love the NFL!
Seattle* @ St. Louis (+3)
[Hard-hitting analysis about the most boring game of the week here.]
At Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay* (+12)
Gotta take the home team, but I like the points here. Josh Freeman gets a healthy (maybe?) Antonio Bryant back, and I suspect Derrick Ward will get quite a few snaps this week as the Bucs look toward 2010 to see what they have on roster, what they need, and what needs to go. Between Freeman, Kellen Winslow, Bryant and Ward, there's a good nucleus there. On the opposite side, Atlanta's been a big disappointment this year after starting 4-1, now just 5-5. They have the tools, that's for sure, but have had some tough outcomes, including last week's 34-31 loss to the Giants. Jason Snelling should get the call at RB this week while Michael Turner continues to rehab that high ankle sprain, and that means big things for Snelling. Tampa's D is terrible against the run, so look for the guy to have about 110 total yards and a score. I think Atlanta wins by 10 at home.
At New York Jets vs. Carolina* (+3)
Another one where I like the upset this week. The Jets have slipped so far over the last month. After the first three weeks, Sanchez was being called the new John Elway. I even listened to two guys in my gym argue about who was better/who you'd rather have Sanchez or Brady. One guy was pleading for Sanchez. I thought he was crazy and I'm sure he regrets it now. Sanchez has thrown 6 interceptions over the last two weeks and sixteen on the year. Growing pains, I suppose. Jake Delhomme knows all about that, right? The Carolina rushing attack will be on display here as the Jets have lost a step in defending that with Kris Jenkins' season-ending injury. This might be the week that Sanchez gets pulled if he continues to cost this team games with his poor decision-making skills.
At San Francisco* vs. Jacksonville (+3)
Earlier this year, Jacksonville traveled west to play Seattle and lost 41-nil. As in zero. As in, couldn't even kick a field goal. Some things have changed and Jacksonville's been playing a lot better lately. Alex Smith is utilizing Mike Crabtree now, which is good for the team. Vernon Davis is having a renaissance this season and Frank Gore's been playing well also. They need this one to even think about the division, placing them two behind the Cardinals if they were to lose. Tough task, but hey, it could happen. I dunno, I'd be looking toward 2010 if I'm Mike Singletary. Jake Locker, the Washington QB, might be a solid addition to this team. Jimmy Clausen could be too. We know they both look good in gold...
At San Diego vs. Kansas City* (+13.5)
Jamaal Charles: two first names makes him sound like a Bar Mitzvah DJ or the help at some rich old white person's house.
KC played waaaaaay out of their minds last week, proving they have some fight left in them. I still think the Chargers continue their hot streak, but it's going to be tough. The Bolts are a team who've won five straight after a sluggish 2-3 start. LT2 is running hard again and even without lights-out performances from Phil Rivers, they've managed to beat some very good teams including the Giants, Eagles and Broncos in their last three. I like Jamaal Charles to run for some yardage and make some big plays again this week. Chris Chambers is going to be chomping at the bit to show his old team what they're missing. I'm rooting for the Chiefs, but I'm not stupid.
At Baltimore* vs Pittsburgh (+2.5)
The Steelers aren't the same team without Troy Polamalu roving the field, decapitating dudes, breaking up passes, and generally being one of the three most dominant defensive players in the NFL today. With the news earlier this week that he's likely to miss another week or two with some knee ligament damage, and the threat of playing without Ben Roethlisberger because of his concussion last week, this game could be a wild one. Good news is it looks like Big Ben's gonna be out there. Pittsburgh, coming off a tough, tough road loss to Kansas City is looking to make up that ground in the division with a big win this week. Baltimore hasn't been the same team they were the first three weeks of the season -- Ray Rice has taken his place in the spotlight as one of the best young backs in the NFL but for all that good, Joe Flacco has taken a step back in his development lately. Without Terrell Suggs this week, and star cornerback Fabian Washington lost for the year and the aerial attack of Pittsburgh waiting for Sunday, this one could be a battle. I like the home team to put a major, major dent in the Super Bowl champions' repeat hopes this week with a bruising, tough win this week. Also, I know it's as close to a must-win situation as you'll see in Week 12, but why isn't Ben Roethlisberger, the star QB, sitting this week with the head injury? The NFL is so concerned with head injuries now, I can't understand why there hasn't been more pressure to sit this guy. Clinton Portis has missed two weeks with his concussion, Brian Westbrook missed two with his. Is it because the quarterback is the leader that they can't rest up for one week and shake out the cobwebs? When you look at what can happen to someone who's had a concussion if they were to get jarred again, it's pretty scary.
At New Orleans vs. New England* (+2.5)
Everyone will be watching this one on Monday.
This one is the big one. The passing of the torch game, potentially. I'm not ready to jump on the New Orleans Saints' dynasty bandwagon just yet -- they have to win a playoff game first -- but this 10-0 start is no fluke. The QB battle in this one is going to be what everyone's focusing on. I'll be interested by the battle on the outside, Randy Moss against Darren Sharper. Sharper's had an amazing, Defensive Player of the Year-caliber season and Randy Moss continues to perform at a very high level. Another great battle will be the Saints' running attack versus the Pats' front 7. When healthy, they have such depth and diversity with Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush. Bush is battling knee problems, but I think he'll be out there for this one on Monday night. I can't add anything new to the discussion that hasn't already been talked about ad nauseum, but I do think the Patriots win a tough battle by a touchdown. I can't see the Saints going undefeated even with their remaining games including the Skins, Falcons, Cowboys, Bucs and Panthers. Not exactly top-notch opponents. 14-2 is more likely. The Patriots have too much grit, too much toughness, and too much savvy. I go with the team who's been there before in this one.
Last Week:14-2 (8-8 with the spread)
Overall: 113-48 (90-70)
Reader Comments (3)
TIGHT picks this week JR... been following you for awhile now and really enjoy what you do...
Keep up the great work and have a happy thanksgiving!!
feel free to check out my picks @
http://www.lionsdenu.com/category/sports/nfl-guide-2009-2010/
Regards,
TheCoach
the coach is right. TIGHT FUCKING PICKS.
Thanks, Coach. And thank you, Crotch! You're both aces in my book. Coach: If you care to link to my picks, I'd be happy to link to your site next week, too!
With a Friendship-Boner of Mutual Respect,
JR