JR's Football Picks: Week 11
Thursday, November 19, 2009 at 07:17PM
"I cut the sleeves off because it looks awesome. Get your head in the game!"Well, say goodbye to the bye weeks -- they're done. From here on out, it's all teams playing every week. Some teams are competing for division titles, others for wild card spots, and some to avoid the distinction of being the worst team in football, earning the number 1 pick and right to overpay some arrogant asshole to come and join their shitty team.
This week, there are a couple of important/interesting games. Not nearly of the magnitude of last week's PIttsburgh vs. Cincy battle or Patriots vs. Colts showdown to end all showdowns, though. If I may for just one second: HOLY FUCK, WHAT AN UNBELIEVABLE FOOTBALL GAME! THAT SUNDAY NIGHT GAME WAS INTENSE FROM THE OPENING KICKOFF! IT FELT LIKE A SUPERBOWL! BILL BELICHICK: YOU'RE FUCKING UP! ASK 100 COACHES WHAT TO DO ON 4TH AND 2 FROM YOUR 28 YARD LINE WITH TWO MINUTES. THEY'D SAY PUNT. MAKE PEYTON MANNING GO 80 YARDS TO BEAT YOU, NOT 28. YOU'RE A DICK AND YOUR TASTE IN WEIGHTLIFTER-CUT SWEATSHIRTS IS LACKING. YOU WENT TO COLLEGE WITH MY STEP-DAD, AND YOU WERE PROBABLY PLAYING THAT OLD-SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAME WITH A VIBRATING MAGNETIC FIELD GAMEBOARD INSTEAD OF GOING OUT CRUISING FOR PUSS LIKE A CONQUISTADOR LOOKING FOR EXOTIC SPICES AND CHEAP SLAVE LABOR. DICK!
Alright, Week 11, here we go:
Week 11 picks (picks in BOLD; * denotes spread picks)
At Carolina vs. Miami* (+3.5)
Sticky Ricky Williams - WEED POWER.
Since this is a Thursday game, I know I have to hustle to get it logged. This week, the Fins lost Ronnie Brown for the rest of the season because of a bum wheel. So that's 2/3rds of their opening day backfield gone (Remember that guy Chad Pennington?). However, Carolina is a struggling team defensively -- after losing their starting nose tackle in the pre-season, they've struggled to fill that hole. I'd expect the Dolphins to power the run, challenge the Panthers to stop them, and then if they had to, go to the pass. I wonder how much run Pat White gets now, running the grown-up Triple Option... Although Carolina is 4-2 in their last six after starting the year 0-3, I'm taking the points and the underdog this week.
At New York* vs. Atlanta (+6.5)
I know, I know. Four losses in a row, no Antonio Pierce, and no real reason to think that this week will be different than the previous 5 winless ones. But Aaron Ross is back to help the secondary. Michael Turner -- the Falcons' offensive battering ram -- is out this week with an ankle issue, and the Giants are coming off the bye at home. I have to go with the Giants. If they don't win this one, they're done and there are no playoffs this year.
At Detroit* vs. Cleveland (+3.5)
Fuck me, man.
At Jacksonville* vs. Buffalo (+9)
His kneel-down against the Jets hurt a lot of Fantasy players. Expect over a hundred and at least a score this week.
Okay, so one team is coming off of a big win on the road against a very good team and is 3-1 in their last four. That team also has a solid triumverate of offensive 5-tool players, two of which have very strong-minded, independent black women for mothers who demanded that their husbands' children take THEIR names. And they're playing a team that fired its offensive coordinator before the season started, traded their best offensive lineman for a song, got their dicks beat in last week on the road, were given the bird by some old rich white guy, and fired their coach this week. Yeah, I'll take the not-as-dysfunctional tertiary and forgettable American city.
Pittsburgh* @ Kansas City (+10)
Jamaal Charles, the man with two first names; you can run against the Raiders and look pretty good doing it. Kudos to you, young man. However, this week, your team is playing the Steelers. An angry, angry Steelers team fighting to stay in the conversation for the AFC North, though that has likely sailed on them. Good luck, KC. But without Dwayne Bowe, and no semblance of a defense, it ain't happening. Ben Roethlisberger goes bananas. Rashard Mendenhall is going to score twice. And I think Santonio Holmes reminds us fantasy folks why so many drafted him early with a very solid game. Todd Haley and the Chiefs, without Dwayne Bowe who got busted this week for taking some kind of hydroxycut-like substance so he looked better in a bathing suit, are looking toward the draft now. My bet is they'll be looking at someone for the offensive line, or the big tight end out of Oklahoma named Jermaine Gresham to give that offense some tools. If I'm talking about their draft for April 2010, it can't be good for their chances this week.
Indianapolis* @ Baltimore (+1)
Well, after last week, I dunno what I can say. A lot of writers are saying this is the week Baltimore gets their groove back, proves they're worthy of the pre-season fawning and earns some respect (and a much-needed win) against this awesome machine called The Colts. It's on the road, which is tough because anyone who has seen The Wire knows that Baltimore is a tough town. Call me crazy, but I think the Colts pull this one out. They're going to lose one day, it'll be between Weeks 12 and 17, but it's not this week. Not against a team who looked as good as they did because they played The Browns. Short week, Flacco still hasn't shown consistent improvement, and the defense lost a major piece when Brady Quinn took out Terrell Suggs on Monday. Colts win by six.
At Green Bay* vs. San Francisco (+6.5)
Green Bay looked great last week hosting the Cowboys, allowing what amounted to a mercy score in the final 5 minutes. Ryan Grant got off to a slow start, but as usual, Aaron Rodgers bailed out the Packers with his leadership and smart play. He's got over 220 rushing yards this year, two touchdowns and he's slow as fuck. That means the guy is smart, he knows when he's feeling the pressure in the pocket, and when to escape. I like the Packers at home this week, hosting a west coast team traveling east. Plus, beyond Frank Gore and the Defense led by Patrick Willis, San Fran doesn't have much to root for. They're another year (and a quality Quarterback) away from competing for the NFC West crown year-in and year-out.
At Minnesota vs. Seattle* (+11)
Sidney Rice is becoming a beast in Minnesota.
Minnesota is just too good. Top to bottom, they're stacked. Seattle has talent, but they can't get everything going on the same page at the same time. I think they'll throw a ton today to stay in it, which could mean a lot of mistakes by Matt Hasselbeck. Justin Forsett gets the start at running back while Julius Jones is out nursing a bruised pussy. But when you're playing against guys named Favre, Peterson, Rice/Berrian/Harvin, The Williams Wall and Allen -- you just can't like your chances on the road.
New Orleans* @ Tampa Bay (+11.5)
There are three things I know to be true: 1) Thanksgiving is less than a week away and I'm goddamn stoked to eat turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes and all of the et ceteras. 2) The New Orleans Saints don't lose to Tampa Bay this week.
Drew Brees, Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey (including the hodgepodge of other dudes in that receiving corps.) are going to directly benefit from the lack of running defense in Tampa that will let Pierre Thomas (and maybe Mike Bell and Reggie Bush) go for some major yardage. These teams are in two different classes, frankly. And that's not news to anyone.
Arizona* @ St. Louis (+9)
Same thing about this match-up. The Cardinals made it to the Super Bowl last year on the strength of their aerial assault. That cadre of all-pro receivers is still in tact and now we're adding Chris Wells to the mix as a very powerful running option. Their D is talented and their schedule is pretty favorable. Despite the fact that the Rams played the aforementioned Saints last week, I think this one turns into a track meet quickly. So much so, I wouldn't be surprised if Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin (but definitely Larry) are sitting for a lot of the fourth. I'm predicting 125 and 2 TDs for Fitzy. If you've got him in your fantasy league, feel great starting him.
At New England* vs. NY Jets (+10.5)
This year's "That's muh quataback" moment.
Well, after last week's game, I wouldn't want to be the team playing the Patriots this week. On the road, against the brutal Patriots, after they lost by a point. Belichick WILL run up the score. Tom Brady WILL pass for more than 3 touchdowns. Rex Ryan WILL cry again after the game. I can't pick against the Pats this week. No way.
Cincinnati* @ Oakland (+9.5)
Loving those Bengals this year! And after a huge, huge win last week against the Steelers taking them to 5-0 in the AFC North they get the treat of the Raiders this week. Unless some sort of crazy unforseen circumstance affects the Raiders prior to game time, the same Raiders who are in complete disarray and benched their franchise quarterback in favor of Bruce Gradkowski, Cincy goes on the road and earns a victory this week.
At Dallas vs. Washington* (+11)
Tough NFC East match-up this week in Dallas. Similar to the Patriots, Dallas was embarrassed on the road. But while the Pats were outcoached by their own coach, Dallas was just straight-up outplayed by the home team. They're going back home, and get a sad franchise this week in Washington. Clinton Portis is out so Ladell Betts takes the majority of the snaps this week, with Rock Cartwright (awesome name!) spelling him when needed. The Skins will play the Cowboys tough, but I think Dallas pulls it out.
San Diego* @ Denver (+3)
AFC West showdown in Denver this week. Phil Rivers is basically good for 250 yards and 2 TDs every week. That'll be good enough to beat the reeling Broncos this week, especially with Tomlinson playing as well as he is lately. Chris Simms is starting for the Broncos, giving me a little less hope since the guy hasn't played a snap in meaningful football games since 2007. Maybe, if they can get Knownshon Moreno going full-speed early, and control the clock with a big running attack, they'll have a chance. However, I like the surging Chargers to keep playing inspired football and clawing their way back toward the division title.
Philadelphia* @ Chicago (+3)
Big match-up for two teams who need to bounce back and win to stay competitive in their divisions. I think McNabb bounces back after a tough loss to rally the offense -- one of the most explosive in the NFL -- to get the job done against an aging and very overrated Bears defense. As I've said before, I love rooting against Jay Cutler if only because he epitomizes the spoiled, shitty, hockey-kid white guy that I grew up despising for getting a Saab for their first car in high school while I got my grandma's Mercury Sable. He's a great villain in the NFL, he's openly a prick to his teammates and/or coaches. I'm not going to say I want the Eagles to win -- that muddles things for my beloved Giants in the NFC East. But I do hope that Cutler throws another 5 interceptions. Dude's a dick.
At Houston vs. Tennessee* (+4.5)
That's right, Tennessee fans, the REAL Vince Young is baaaaaaack!
Surprisingly, a very interesting game in Houston on Monday. An AFC South game, Steve Slaton trying to earn his starting job back, Vince Young going for his 4th straight win as starter after an abyssmal 0-6 start by the Titans... the owner of the Titans, Bud Adams going for another headline-grabbing one-finger salute in Houston. I'm taking the Titans, even though they're on the road, against the strong Texans. I think Chris Johnson runs wild and will continue to reap the benefits of having a more mobile, elusive QB at the helm, who can throw the rock. The Titans, coming back after a very tough start. Congrats to Jeff Fisher for rallying his troops and getting some inspired football out of the group. This is why he's the longest tenured coach in the NFL.
Last Week:8-7 (7-8 with the spread)
Overall: 99-46 (82-62)
JR |
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